The current doubling rate of known COVID-19 infections in the world – excluding China – is 5. What that means is that the number of known infections doubles every 5 days.
In the US, the doubling rate is closer to 3 days. As of today, the WHO reports that there are 472 known cases in the US, up from 213 yesterday.
At a doubling rate of 5 days, there will be 1 Million known cases of COVID-19 in the US sometime around May 5th (Cinco de Mayo).
The first graph below shows the number of cases in the world – excluding China – over time. The second graph shows the number of cases in the US over time. As you can see, the growth is exponential, not linear.
In the US, we have a finite number of hospital beds and ventilators. If the infection continues to spread unchecked, those resources will quickly become exhausted, which will leave many patients without adequate medical care. That will lead to higher patient mortality rates.
By taking early containment measures, we can slow the doubling rate of COVID-19 and buy ourselves more time, which will mean more patients receiving adequate care and lower mortality rates.
You may have heard people saying that the media is blowing this out of proportion and that the flu has killed way more people than COVID-19 already this year. To put that in perspective, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of the flu in the US is about 0.1%. That means that about 1 out of every 1000 persons infected with the flu died as a result. By comparison, the CFR of COVID-19 in China is about 2.39%. That means that nearly 24 out of every 1000 persons infected with COVID-19 died as a result. In other words, COVID-19 is about 23.9 times deadlier than the flu.
We know that young and healthy people are very unlikely to die from COVID-19. That fact necessitates higher mortality rates among old and unhealthy people. Specifically, there is a 1.3% mortality rate in the 50-59 age group, a 3.6% rate in the 60-69 age group, an 8% rate in the 70-79 age group, and a 14.8% rate in the 80+ age group. Patients with cardiovascular disease have a 10.5% mortality rate, those with diabetes have a 7.3% mortality rate, and so on.
So, this is serious and we need to take it seriously. I personally believe it is our civic duty as Americans to follow the best advice available in order to prevent the spread of this disease. That means washing our hands for 20 seconds frequently throughout the day, not touching our eyes, noses or mouths, practicing social distancing, coughing and sneezing into a tissue or our elbows, self-quarantining if we have symptoms, etc.
Italy has been hit hard by this pandemic and just today announced that the entire country is in lockdown. We can and should learn from the examples of China and Italy. This is a time for swift, bold, and decisive action.
As Americans, we are accustomed to using credit cards to borrow from the future so that we can have what we want today. Now we are being called upon to sacrifice what we want in the present for the sake of our future. That’s not something to which most Americans are accustomed. It may feel strange and even scary at first, but it will fill us with a sense of pride and patriotism.
As President John F. Kennedy famously said almost a generation ago, “ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.”
This is our moment to do something great for the future of our country and our world.
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